• Aaron A.Jordan

Hurricane Season Predictions 2019

Hurricane winds, Hurricane Effects, Coast Hurricane Winds

This years Atlantic hurricane season is predicted by experts to be even more active than last year. Most kids are likely already thinking of their post apocalyptic-esque vacation days from school. According to local hurricane authorities and predictions released earlier this week by The Weather Company, there may be a total of 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. This year’s projections are undoubtedly slightly above the 30-year average of 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes. A major hurricane is one that is Category 3 or stronger on the Hurricane Wind Scale.

30 Year Average

  • 12 named storms

  • 6 hurricanes

  • 3 major hurricanes (category 3 or greater)

2019 Hurricane Season Predictions

  • 14 named storms

  • 7 hurricanes

  • 3 major hurricanes (category 3 or greater)

Though the official Atlantic hurricane season runs from June through November, many times we see storms develop outside those months. The previous two seasons are an example with Tropical Storm Alberto in May and Tropical Storm Arlene in April of 2017. The Weather Company's outlook is based on several factors, including sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, El Niño, and past hurricane seasons exhibiting similar atmospheric conditions.

How to be Protected 24/7

It only takes one of the 14 storms predicted to develop this season to hit the U.S. That's why longtime residents of Florida know to always be prepared each year no matter the forecast. Impact windows and impact doors have become increasingly accessible because they are permanent and passive protection against hurricanes. You can read more here about our completely "passive" hurricane protection solutions.

Unfortunately, modern impact windows and doors were not as available in 1992 and 1983 when Florida residents experienced two visceral examples of why preparation is important regardless of the seasonal forecast. The 1992 hurricane season only produced six named storms and one small tropical storm. However, one of those named storms developed into the storm we all know as Hurricane Andrew, the category 5 hurricane who devastated South Florida. Similarly, in 1983 there were only four named storms, but one of them was Alicia. The CAT 3 hurricane hit Texas hard and caused a severe loss of life.

Does More Activity Mean More Danger?

In contrast, the 2010 hurricane season was extremely active, with 19 named storms and 12 hurricanes. Despite a large number of named and unnamed storms that year, only one tropical storm made landfall. It’s evident that a season can deliver many storms but have little impact or deliver few storms but with significant impacts.

According to NOAA, the U.S. averages close to two hurricane landfalls each season. Most recently, were hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria, which battered Texas, Florida and Puerto Rico, respectively. In the past three years, a total of eight significant hurricanes were so destructive and deadly their names were retired from further use by the World Meteorological Organization. The number of U.S. landfalls had been well below average over the previous ten years before these seasons. U.S. hurricane landfalls from 2006 through 2015 totaled seven. This was arguably a record low for any 10-year period dating all the way back to 1850’s.

So, Should I be Worried?

There is no true way to predict if a hurricane will make landfall this year and our customers are not worried. Our hurricane impact windows and doors are rated to withstand wind pressures of category 5 hurricanes. Keep in mind, however, that even a weak tropical storm can cause extreme impacts, particularly if it is slow moving with flooding rainfall. One significant hurricane season ingredient worth watching this year is El Niño. El Niño was in place as of mid-April and is expected to continue through summer and possibly even into the fall, according to NOAA. This prediction could have serious effects on storm development. El Niño can produce areas of stronger wind shear. These drastic changes in wind speed and sinking cold air in parts of the Atlantic may combat the development or maintenance of tropical cyclones.

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